Summary
Date Posted: Friday, November 27, 2020 , Base Salary: Not Disclosed

JOB DETAILS:
Cities and Infrastructure for Growth Zambia
Position: Economics and Demographic Forecasting Expert – Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) development for the Ministry of Energy
Location: Lusaka, Zambia
Start Date: December 2020
Contract Duration: 9 months part-time (40-60 days)
About Cities and Infrastructure for Growth Zambia (CIGZambia)
CIGZambia is a facility that provides high-quality independent technical advice and assistance to Zambian government bodies and private sector organisations engaged in projects/programmes that help harness the potential of Zambia’s cities and towns to act as drivers for economic growth and job creation. CIGZambia is funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
The overall programme objectives are:
• increasing urban productivity;
• improving inclusive access to urban economic infrastructure services;
• increasing investment into urban economic infrastructure services; and,
• enhancing national and regional integration between cities.
The development of an efficient, affordable and reliable energy supply ecosystem to support the development of the economy in Zambia’s cities is considered to be an essential component of achieving these objectives.
About the Role
This project aims to support the Ministry of Energy to develop an Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for Zambia. The IRP is a 30-year plan for a sustainable electricity investment strategy for generation, transmission, distribution and energy access infrastructure that will ensure universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity at the lowest total environmental, social, economic and financial cost consistent with local, national and regional development goals. The IRP will also include implications arising from demand-side management (DSM) and pricing.
The IRP will be developed across several project modules including: Demand Assessment, Transmission Planning, Distribution Planning, Least Cost Generation Planning, Renewable Resource Planning, Sector Financial Sustainability, Power Procurement Processes, Climate, Gender and Inclusion Analysis, Institutional Planning Framework and Demand Side Management and Energy Efficiency.
It should be noted that the climate impacts related to energy planning under different scenarios will form a significant component of the modelling that will be required as the IRP is developed.
The IRP is being developed over a 17-month period commencing in November 2020 and ending in March 2021. However, a critical input into the IRP planning process is a demand forecast for energy usage that is linked to the wider social and economic goals of Zambia. The demand forecast will take into account current and future anticipated demographic trends (such as population growth, split between urban and rural population and household level changes in energy usage) and the anticipated long-term developments that will take place in the industrial, mining and agricultural sectors. Future changes in technology, and cultural and behavioural factors that influence how energy is used will also need to be considered as part of the demand assessment. .

Working under the direct supervision of the IRP Project Leader, the consultant will lead a small team responsible for the following:
• Analysis of historical and current demand and usage of electricity from in-country sources including ZESCO, Energy Regulation Board, Rural Electrification Authority, Ministry of Energy and Zambia Statistics Agency analysing the usage patterns of different customer groups and at different locations;
• Reviewing and recommending an appropriate state of the art methodology for demand forecasting for the IRP;
• Preparing models for future growth in energy demand for the major cities and all provinces of Zambia taking into account the following factors:
o demographic projections for population growth
o actual and future anticipated projects in agriculture
o current and future mining demand
o current and future demand from the transport sector
o current and future demand from commerce and industry
o Government plans for electrification
o technology change and energy efficiency
o behavioural and cultural factors
o climate change factors
o Impact of local generation on demand forecasts
• Benchmarking energy demand patterns in Zambia against other developing countries;
• Providing relevant data and assumptions on energy demand to other specialists within the IRP delivery team responsible for generation, transmission and distribution modelling, financial sustainability analysis, gender and social inclusion in energy and climate impact analysis;
• Drafting presentations and documents and providing written input and verbal summaries on request as part of the IRP consultation and implementation process;
• Preparing a data base of information on electricity demand to be incorporated into a national energy planning system, that can be maintained and updated.

The consultant will work closely with other members of the CIGZambia team, including experts in the different functional areas described above, and with the designated IRP development team from the Ministry of Energy.
The consultant will also prepare progress reports on a monthly basis on project implementation and provide update reports on request in relation to the project activities as will be assigned to him by the IRP Project Leader.
The consultant should possess strong technical skills in demographic analysis and economic forecasting in and energy/environmental/resources environment having previous experience of undertaking similar exercises. The consultant should be conversant with international methodologies for economic and energy forecasting and should demonstrate awareness of appropriate systems and processes. The consultant will be expected to possess proven skills in delivering projects of this nature, as well as communication and leadership skills relevant to the project stakeholders and the team from Ministry of Energy and CIGZambia assigned to this project.
Project Responsibilities
The consultant shall ensure the proper and timely implementation of the Project. The consultant shall report to CIGZambia any delay in the Project implementation and propose solutions where possible to reduce the delay.
The consultant will use his/her experience as well as international and local knowledge in the sector to support the development of the IRP. He/she will also recommend plans for capacity building and technology transfer of the proposed demand forecasting system to Ministry of Energy.
Resourcing and Reporting
The resourcing requirement will vary during the contract but will average approximately three (3) days per week. The consultant would report to the IRP Project Lead.
It is estimated that the full scope of the IRP project will be delivered over a period of 16 months between December 2020 and March 2022.

Key Knowledge, Experience and Qualifications
• Master’s Degree in Relevant Subject (Economics, Demographics, Development, Mathematics, Engineering) with at least ten (10) years-experience in similar roles;
• Experience in developing an integrated plan in a Government, utility or municipality environment;
• Knowledge of economic, demographic and social planning processes and associated systems, tools and modelling software;
• Experience in systems analysis and design relevant to the IRP;
• Demonstrable skills in written and verbal communication and proven report writing skills to high professional standards;
• Must have strong analytical and problem-solving skills.

Job Education Requirements: Not Specified

Job Experience Requirements: Not Specified

Work Hours: 8

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Job application procedure
Please send your CV to admin@cigzambia.org  For CV to be considered, subject line in email must be completed as follows: Economics and Demographic Forecasting Expert – Candidate Last Name, First Name
Deadline for Applications: 9th December 2020

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