Terms of Reference (ToRs) for Conducting Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment under the Improving the Socio-economic status of women, youths, and marginalized groups project

1. Background

The Irish government has approved a grant to Oxfam and its partners through Oxfam Ireland to implement the Ireland’s Civil Society Partnership (ICSP) for A Better World 2023-2027. In Zambia, the ‘Improving Socio-Economic Status for Women, Youth and Marginalized Groups’ project in Mongu, Kaoma, Namwala, Gwembe districts, to be implemented by Oxfam through ICSP will reach 15,600 people directly from vulnerable households including female, child and elderly headed households. These areas have been selected because of the various vulnerabilities that the people, especially women, youth and persons with disabilities, in these districts face which include, high poverty levels, low education levels, negative cultural and social norms, poor agricultural practices, limited economic activity and well as the hard effects of climate change which has caused the late onset of rains, floods, as well as persistent dry spells in the rainy season. The intervention will deliberate target vulnerable groups which include women, girls, and persons with disabilities, as these groups are usually the poorest in their communities, the face numerous discriminations and lack opportunities to better their situation. The programme will also work with men and boys, traditional leaders, local government structures and other stakeholders to tackle the prioritized socio-economic challenges in the target communities.

The project’s development objective is enhanced and scaled-up nexus adaptation measures contributing to resilient food security, gender justice, and environmentally sustainable rural livelihoods. The objective will be achieved through three interrelated impact areas whose main outcomes are:

• People experiencing poverty and most vulnerable to shocks, conflicts and crises have more sustainable and equitable access to food and livelihoods:
• Strong community-based mechanisms that address sexual and gender-based violence in domestic and public spaces and shift harmful gender-related social norms,
• Institutional systems to prevent and respond to shocks, conflict and crises are more inclusive and better informed by the needs, rights, and vulnerabilities of those furthest behind,
• People experiencing poverty, conflict and most vulnerable to shocks are better served by a nexus approach to peace, humanitarian, and development.

2. Description of the work

Oxfam and partners intend to see People experiencing poverty and most vulnerable to shocks, conflicts and crises have more sustainable and equitable access to food and livelihoods. A fundamental first step in creating interventions to build resiliency to the impacts of climate change is to conduct a climate risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) in the targeted areas of implementation. This will serve as the basis for developing necessary solutions through a suite of plans, programs, and policies. We believe that this will be a critical component as it will form a basis for developing adaptation actions and climate action plans.

3. Objectives

The primary objective of this consultancy is to conduct a comprehensive climate risk and vulnerability assessment for Kaoma, Mongu, Gwembe and Namwala districts. The assessment aims to:

3. Identify and assess the potential climate-related risks and vulnerabilities in the target area, including those affecting women and marginalized groups.
4. To develop climate risks and vulnerability maps of the 4 districts for a period of at least 30years, considering gender-specific vulnerabilities.
5. To conduct a risk assessment that determines the keys risks based on the interplay of hazards and impacts, considering gender disparities.
6. Analyze the potential impacts of climate change on the target area and its communities with a focus on gender impacts.
7. Provide recommendations for mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability, including gender-responsive strategies.
8. To develop a situational analysis report of the 4 districts with a strong emphasis on gender dynamics.

4. Scope of Work

The selected consultant(s) or consulting firm will be responsible for the following tasks:

1. Literature Review: Review relevant literature and climate data to understand the historical climate trends, projected changes, and existing vulnerabilities.
2. Data Collection and Analysis: Collect and analyze local climate data, socio-economic data, and other relevant information to identify vulnerabilities and risks.
3. Stakeholder Consultation: Conduct consultations with key stakeholders, including local communities, government officials, NGOs, and experts, to gather insights and local knowledge.
4. Climate Modeling: Use climate models and scenarios to assess the potential future climate conditions in the target area.
5. Vulnerability Assessment: Assess the vulnerability of the target area and its communities to climate change, including socio-economic, environmental, and infrastructure aspects.
6. Risk Assessment: Identify and assess the potential climate-related risks, including extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other climate impacts.
7. Impact Assessment: Determine the potential impacts of climate change on key sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, health, and livelihoods.
8. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Develop recommendations for adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance resilience.
9. Report Preparation: Prepare a comprehensive report that includes findings, analysis, recommendations, and an executive summary.

5. Methodology

• Both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods through a combination of field visits, desk studies (reviewing project documents) and gender-disaggregated data analysis.
• Collection of primary data through engagements with service providers, support structures and beneficiaries with a focus on gender dynamics.
• Situation Analysis (socio-economic and environmental assessments in 4 districts) Empirical data-based Analysis to.
• Deduce evidence of climate change over the 4 districts
• Assess and document climate changes, risk, and vulnerability patterns.
• Undertake participatory Risk and Vulnerability Assessments
• Undertake Risk, vulnerability, and climate mapping.
• Assess and document economic impacts of climate change.

All qualitative data must be recorded and transcribed accordingly to ensure data quality. Data analysis should be conducted on Excel, Stata, SPSS, or any other relevant software. Additional follow up field visits should take place in any knowledge gaps and further validate findings.

6. Deliverables

The following deliverables are expected from the consultancy:

6. Inception Report: Provide an inception report outlining the approach, data collection plan, and proposed methodology.
7. Draft Assessment Report: Submit a draft assessment report for review and feedback from the project stakeholders.
8. Final Assessment Report: Submit a final assessment report, including all findings, maps of the CRVA, analysis, and recommendations.
9. Presentations: Develop a PowerPoint presentation of the findings and recommendations to be presented to Oxfam team.

7. Timeline
Please send your expression of interest by Tuesday 14^th November 2023. The assignment is expected to start by 20^th November with final report ready by 20^th December 2023.

8. Qualifications and Expertise

The consultant(s) or consulting firm should have the following qualifications and expertise:

1. Demonstrated experience in conducting climate risk and vulnerability assessments.
2. Expertise in climate modeling, data analysis, and vulnerability assessment techniques.
3. Knowledge of the local context and experience working in the target area or similar regions.
4. Strong communication and report writing skills.
5. Demonstrated ability to engage with stakeholders and local communities.

9. Evaluation Criteria

The selection of the consultant(s) or consulting firm will be based on the following criteria:

• Qualifications and expertise
• Methodology and approach
• Cost-effectiveness
• Relevant experience

10. Proposal Submission

Interested consultants or consulting firms should submit their proposals, including a detailed work plan, methodology, CVs of key personnel, and a proposed budget.

Deadline for submissions: Send your Expression of Interest and proposed budgets by Tuesday 14^th November 2023.  Send your applications to Esilwimba@oxfam.org.uk and copy HRZambia@oxfam.org.uk