Summary

Purpose

To undertake a Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (PVCA) and Socio-economic Survey within sections of Mulobezi, Nkala, Sichifulo and Mufunta with a focus on: ecosystems and ecosystem services, environmental change, as a result of human activities and climate change, local livelihoods and climate vulnerability, environmental governance, climate adaptation needs and identification of resource availability.

Location: Zambia
Duration: 6 months
Estimated start date: August 2024
Reporting to: Monitoring, Evaluation & Learning Manager, TNC Zambia

Background

The Greater Kafue Ecosystem (GKE) comprises the core conservation area in Kafue National Park (KNP), adjacent Game Management Areas (GMAs) and communal lands surrounding that act as buffer zones where people and wildlife co-exist. The GMA model integrates local communities into governance, management, and benefit-sharing mechanisms. The underlying premise of this model is that GMAs offer tangible economic benefits to communities through tourism, employment, conservation education, and access to natural resources.
Communities living within or adjacent to the protected area network are highly reliant on the natural environment to support their livelihoods needs. This includes access to basic services such provision of clean water, food from natural resources including forest products, fisheries and wildlife and natural building materials. Human induced changes at global and local level are rapidly eroding these benefits and reducing the resistance and resilience that association with intact natural ecosystems has provided for generations, provided rural communities with an array of ecosystems goods and services supporting their wellbeing. Climate variability, erratic and unpredictable rainfall, land use changes through deforestation, poor land-use practices and land management have exacerbated the problems.
In recognition of these threats and the risk that consequently faces communities in the GKE, The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has initiated a project that aims to assess climate risk to vulnerable communities and develop nature-based adaptation solutions that reduce risk and improve climate resilience. Through this work, TNC and its partners will: a) conduct joint climate risk assessments using downscaled climate models; b) conduct participatory socioeconomic vulnerability and capacity analyses (PVCA) to understand and address spatial variability in vulnerable communities; c) validate the results in communities to understand how they perceive climate risks and what climate change adaptation measures they might already be taking; and d) estimate the costs of priority adaptation measures, clarifying the implications for poor and marginalized communities. The results of this work will be applied to the development of a Sub-Saharan Africa Climate Adaptation Strategy to integrate climate and vulnerability information into adaptation planning in other TNC projects across Africa.
To do this, TNC are seeking to engage a consultant to conduct the PVCA (aim b above) in select areas of the GKE. The specific objectives and tasks to be performed under this consultancy are articulated below under the Objectives and Activities section of this TOR. In summary, the consultant will be expected to 1) analyse vulnerability to climate change and disasters at the community level, and the potential capacity within the community for dealing with climate change and disasters. 2) combine community knowledge and scientific data to gain understanding about local risks and 3) prepare a succinct report inclusive of a portfolio of solutions that will directly inform local level action plans to reduce the risks from disasters and climate change impacts using nature. This information will be used to enhance the impact of TNCs work across the GKE by providing guidance and frameworks for incorporating climate adaptation strategies into TNCs current workstreams.

Purpose of contract

Conduct a Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Analyses and Socio-economic Survey within the settled development zones of Mulobezi, Nkala, Sichifulo and Mufunta Game Management Areas, and those settled areas immediate adjacent to the GMAs, including Chiefdoms. Existing information on vulnerability at the level of chiefdoms, wards and provinces will be used as a basis of carrying out a local analysis process informed by the contributions of key local actors (communities, various sectors, local government) that allows the verification/identification of specific vulnerabilities in the identified areas above and as per reference map below.

Objectives and Scope of Work

The consultant is required to work closely with TNC experts to undertake all work identified below based on the review of data and results of ongoing work carried out by TNC on climate risks and vulnerabilities. They will also work directly with relevant stakeholders and partners, with technical guidance from the TNC’s Climate Adaptation Specialists to achieve the objectives outlined in the section below. This assessment should be confined to the Game Management Areas (GMA). These GMA areas have three tiers of development: conservation, settled areas (development zones) and communities outside the GMAs on the fringe areas as referenced in the map above. For this assessment, we will be in the settled areas and communities on the fringe areas.

Objectives:

1. Undertake local level Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (Task 1)

A. Compilation of specific information on climate risk and vulnerability of the villages, wards and chiefdoms of Mulobezi, Nkala, Sichifulo and Mufunta (threats, vulnerability and social indicators); using TNC generated modeling and locally gathered data, more concretely:

• Identify the degree of human exposure to major climate risks, specifically drought and flooding
• Determine the climate sensitivity of populations and subgroups exposed to the impacts of these hazards,
• Analyze the capacities of the population or subgroups to cope with the risks of climate change and recover (adaptive capacity).
• Consolidate any prior information on climate change impact metrics based on material/human/natural measures.

B. Under the PVCA at the local level, incorporate indicators of climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity, related to social vulnerability, that is, the structural factors that make communities susceptible to damage from climate related threats.

For this activity, the consultants must:

• Review literature on site/area specific climate vulnerability indicators and indices appropriate for the selected Game Management Areas (GMAs) and communities. TNC will share with the contractor any data, reports and relevant findings, as they become available.
• Review the national climate risk and vulnerability maps at the national government and identify the indicators.
• Based on the vulnerability indicators and indices developed for the Zambian Government, propose a list of primary data indicators and contextual information suitable for assessing climate change (on-the-ground validation) and identify local vulnerabilities and the specific stakeholders to which they apply.
• Undertake the assessment:
  • Collecting primary and secondary data
  • Generating contextual information
  • Conducting analysis
  • Risk prioritisation
  • Formulating action
  • Action plan for moving towards implementation.

Note: The successful organization/individual will be required to work closely with TNC and its partners in the GKE, including government, NGOs and private sector partners. The work required will involve long periods of time in the field in very remote settings. The successful organization/individual will need to be fully self-sufficient with the ability to operate independently in the field for the entire duration of the study.

Final product: The consultant will prepare a report on climate risks and vulnerabilities that includes the assessment of local vulnerabilities to climate change based on the data collected, analyzed and a comprehensive action plan, including a summary of the findings in a slide presentation.

Action plans should integrate disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) and illustrate how these can be incorporated into an existing program. They should inform the design of an adaptive program through the creation of a portfolio of solutions (task 4) that will integrate DRR and CCA measures. As well as include a monitoring and evaluation schedule that covers how to monitor/evaluate the impact of actions taken to reduce risk and enable CCA and assist in the identification of new or adaptive measures. The guide should also include advocacy strategies for DRR and adaptation.

2. Undertake Socio-economic Assessment in the listed villages and chiefdoms. Each village within the chiefdoms will be identified in collaboration with TNC and the local partners. (Task 2)

• Collect primary and secondary baseline data on factors that will most likely affect well-being of local communities, including livelihood characteristics, population growth, planned economic activities, urban development plans, disaster risk, and land-use change. For land use change assessments, consultant will work with TNC using TNC’s existing datasets as well as collaborate with Forestry and other relevant government entities and Departments to ensure alignment with national efforts.
• TNC is currently undertaking a socio-economic assessment in neighbouring GMA’s and we will work with the contractor to eliminate duplication of efforts and reduce survey fatigue.
• Final product: The consultant will prepare a succinct report on the socio-economic status of the listed villages and GMAs inclusive of a focus on livelihood approaches, in the study area and present a summary of this information in a slide presentation.

3. Collect secondary information on the health of the human influenced ecosystems in the selected area, based on existing assessments, reports and interviews with key informants (Task 3).

• Using the available literature, collect information on the current state of health of the the human influenced ecosystems identified in the selected landscape with a focus on the settled areas. Key ecosystems will be identified and prioritized based on recurring vulnerabilities and threat analysis of the selected region.
• Undertake field survey to collect data that can be used to identify and analyze the current general health and management conditions, the institutions/agencies responsible for management, and the climate stressors and their likely impacts on people through various ecosystem changes.
• This assessment should be confined to the settled areas within or immediately adjacent to Game Management Areas (GMA) and Chiefdoms. These GMA areas have three tiers of development: conservation, settled areas (development zones) and communities outside the GMAs on the fringe areas. For this assessment we will be in the settled areas and communities on the fringe areas, and teh . (as per map below)
• Final product: The consultant will prepare a succinct report on the health of the ecosystems in the study area and present a summary of this information in a slide presentation.

4. Evaluate ongoing and planned adaptation responses by different agents (Task 4)
Based on the literature review, focus group and key informant interviews and discussions with TNC teams (see point 1), the consultant will identify a series of feasible adaptation options (current/planned/potential) by the different interested actors as well as propose a more comprehensive portfolio of selected approaches under this contract. This analysis will include nature-based and associated adaptation options, as well as cost estimates, where data is available.

For this task, consultant should:

• Review government reports, peer-reviewed literature and other published literature on existing strategies/interventions associated with reducing particular vulnerabilities that are related to climate change in the country and at the project intervention sites. The review will highlight nature-based adaptation approaches, ecosystem-based approaches to climate change adaptation (EbA), investments in disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) and policy recommendations/interventions.
• In coordination with TNC, develop questionnaires i.e. adaptive response modules for collecting data from focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews. This data collection will include questions about the costs associated with adaptation from key stakeholders [this primary data collection will be conducted in conjunction with data collection for activities 1 and 4].
• Summarize the ongoing (if and where any) and planned adaptation responses of the various stakeholders and summarize the costs of implementing these responses.
• Facilitate a workshop with stakeholders to prioritize adaptation responses. The goal is to share information on identified adaptation responses (compiled from input from local stakeholders, technical assessment, and literature review) and collaboratively evaluate and prioritize available options. The consultant will prepare a report that summarizes the conclusions of this workshop and make recommendations for next steps.
• Final product: The consultant will prepare a succinct report identifying a viable set of adaptation options (portfolio of solutions) and a summary of this information in a slide presentation.

Note: The data collection processes in Activities 1, 2 and 3 will involve mixed methods of data collection, including secondary sources and primary sources; and within primary sources, semi-structured interviews and focus groups of a single type or several types of actors can be combined. TNC will provide access to local and regional geospatial datasets relevant to the project and region of interest. This may include hydrological, terrestrial, freshwater, and socio-economic data, etc. (compiled from previous projects in the area).

5. Hold/Facilitate a workshop to brief TNC, local experts, key community members and local groups for review and feedback. The contractor will be expected to present the results of the Participatory and Vulnerability and Socio-Economic Assessment, and overall analysis of combined data and recommendations. (Task 4)

Final product: The consultant will prepare a succinct report compiling all of the above products as well as a summary of this information in a slide presentation.

To support the above listed objectives the consultant will undertake the below activities:

Specifically, the consultant must perform the following activities within the settled development zones of the project sites: Mulobezi, Nkala, Sichifulo and Mufunta Game Management Areas, and those settled areas immediate adjacent to the GMAs, including Chiefdoms.

i. Develop and submit an inception report with a detailed methodology and work plan outlining the activities to be performed and proposed timeline. This work plan will be used to coordinate activities in the field, as well as activities and consultations with other experts and the implementing partner – TNC, including workshops with the communities.
ii. Conduct field trips, hold expert interviews and focus group discussions to gather and update (if applicable) the necessary information on habitats.
iii. Identify, locate, and map the major threats, vulnerabilities and pressures to the ecosystem and biodiversity by anthropogenic and natural phenomena (including climate change) within the three identified communities. The causes, sources, effects and impacts as well as the actors related (if applicable).
iv. Conduct a participatory vulnerability assessment and socio-economic survey (including a high-level gender analysis) to identify factors across the four areas of vulnerability: Social, economic, physical and environmental, factors that will most likely affect well-being of local communities, including population growth, planned economic activities, livelihood activities, urban development plans, disaster risk and land-use change.
v. Provide an analysis of climate trajectories at the GMA level and associated impacts on the villages and communities located within and adjacent totto the GMA.
vi. Conduct an inventory of the socio-economic and natural resource data.
vii. Undertake analysis to determine the best, middle and worst-case scenarios related to climate-related risks and resource availability under conditions of climate change,
viii. Develop recommendations for the protection, restoration, and conservation actions to increase the ecosystem services provided by the studied habitats, to abate threats, especially as they relate to climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and livelihood provision.
ix. Propose at least five Nature based Solutions (NbS), and or Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA) actions for the relevant villages and GMAs. We know that to reduce climate impacts, some solutions are socio-economic, some hard infrastructure, some at the governance level and as such we encourage you to include other recommendations beyond NbS and EbA such as policy recommendations.
x. Produce a draft, final and summary technical report of the assessments incorporating listed items above.
xi. Hold/Design a workshop to present the results of the combined report to local experts and key community groups for review and feedback. (Consultant will host/facilitate the workshop with participation of TNC staff)

Deliverables and timelines:

Deliverable/Timeline

Consultant’s detailed workplan inclusive of the methodological approach to be used for the VA along with the other activities to be carried out and relevant timelines
1 week after signing contract
Preliminary report inclusive of the identification of major threats to the ecosystems and preliminary findings from the socio-economic analysis – activities ii – vi
Month Two
Final report draft and workshop presentation – activities ii – xii
Mid of Fifth Month
Final report with workshop conclusions and recommendations submitted – all activities i- xii
Month Six
Products Delivery
Final report including all supporting data in GIS format must be delivered electronically as stipulated to: Brenda Tembo – Brenda.tembo@tnc.org and Jared Gambo – jared.gambo@tnc.org.

Qualification or specialized knowledge

Academic Background:

The successful team should have personnel with functional experience in climate change adaptation, strong technical skills in development project design, cost /benefit analyses for nature-based solutions and monitoring and evaluation frameworks. The team should be comprised of the following technical experts with minimum postgraduate degree (MSc) in the below listed areas or a strong background:

• Vulnerability Assessment expertise
• Climate Specialist/Disaster Risk Management Specialist and or
• Social Scientist with Natural Resources Management background and
• GIS expertise
• Landscape Ecology/ Natural Resources Specialist
• Optional but beneficial skillsets:
  • Community Engagement Specialist/ Social Worker

General Experience:

• At least 8 years of experience working in natural resources management, environmental protection in an area relevant to Climate Change, climate change adaptation, terrestrial/freshwater ecology, biodiversity management /conservation preferably in the in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA)

Specific Experience:

• At least 10 years of technical experience in project development, conducting feasibility assessments, options analysis and /or project design, monitoring and evaluation.
• Experience in Vulnerability and Socio-economic Assessment
• Experience in Ecological engineering.
• Substantial relevant experience in the design and implementation of integrated development projects which take into account gender, social, and environmental safeguards standards.
• Work experience in Africa region on development, natural capital, environment, and/or climate change initiatives; Strong analytical and research skills.
• Experience in vulnerability and adaptation or sustainable development issues;
• Exceptional technical writing skills (in English) and ability to seek and incorporate feedback from multiple stakeholders;
• Flexibility and ability to operate in different cultural settings and with a variety of stakeholders; culturally and gender sensitive.
• Familiarity with technical issues related to climate mitigation and adaptation and additionally, methods of cost-benefit analysis for adaptation options
• Experience in demonstrable knowledge of key vulnerability assessment methodologies, empirical data-based analysis, scenario-based risk/hazards projections;
• Demonstrated experience in the use of spatial analysis tools including GIS

Other:

• Experience working with Indigenous People and local communities (IPLC), and NGO’s is highly desirable;
• Experience with participatory consultations and planning processes

Required Languages:

Excellent ability to write and understand English is required;

Call for Applications

Please send your technical proposal, cover letter, financial proposal and sample of relevant work by 11:59pm, July 23rd 2024, to Nabeene Kambaila – Nabeene.kambaila@tnc.org and copy Brenda Tembo – brenda.tembo@tnc.org and Jared Gambo – jared.gambo@tnc.org. In the email subject in application: refer to “Consultancy for Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments for the AAA project in Africa- Zambia”